The play-action passes are where I expect most of the eyeballs in analytics to go, and rightfully so with how the Titans like to play. I think this narrative developed because of Henry's historic playoff run during our AFC championship run and the fact that Tannehill didn't have to do much but he basically killed the Ravens in the first half of that game. Titans running back Derrick Henry is expected to be back in action at Nissan Stadium when No. Ryan Tannehill is having an MVP-caliber season: first in the NFL in Football Outsiders DVOA, and third in the league with a 113.1 passer rating. If all your quarterback is is about his stats, then of course hes going to let the team down. Jones has missed three games, including last week's win over the Colts. Henry had carried much of the offense before being hurt, running for 10 touchdowns through six games. Theres no replicating (or intimating, for that matter) a strategy so reliant on a non-quarterback. Carson Wentz? Based on on tape, comparing Levis to himself doesn't inspire supreme confidence for a franchise that ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns. The Foreman-Hilliard-McNichols trio has combined for five rushing touchdowns during that stretch half of Henrys production in the same amount of contests. Explore Who has the most career 5+ passing TD games? His toughness, his understanding of our offense and what we are trying to do each and every week has been good, coach Mike Vrabel said of Tannehill. If so, you are in for a surprise. NASHVILLE When Dontrell Hilliard burst through a beaten Miami Dolphins defense and sprinted 39 yards into the end zone last Sunday, it capped yet another big rushing performance for the Tennessee Titans without Derrick Henry. McNichols has been asked only to play a specific role, and theres no way to build an offense out of third-down and two-minute drill play calls. "The balance is wins and losses," offensive coordinator Todd Downing said in October. In the same span, the Lewis/McNichols and Tannehill pairing have seen zone on 55% of passing snaps. Since 2019, 77% of Henrys 102 conversion-down snaps were on third-and-short (1-2 yards) or fourth down, and 62% of his backups reps were on third-and-six or longer. NFL.com. The rushing attack remained solid without Henry, as the Titans went 6-3 without him. This season, Tannehill has topped 300 yards only once this season. Henry had three runs of 20-plus yards this season, two of 40-plus. Unlike the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, all of whom selected quarterbacks in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft, the Titans aren't in an outright rebuild just yet. The bottom line, of course, is that the Titans are 8-2, atop the AFC and leading their division by three games. 259 overall pick to select Toledo defensive lineman Desjuan Johnson, otherwise known as the new Mr. For the first time since becoming Tennessees starting quarterback in mid-October 2019, the pressure will be on Tannehill to deliver in the Titans passing game. Ryan Tannehill's arrival has been a boon to Derrick Henry Irrelevant. Do you have a blog? Tennessee sent the 41st and 72nd picks, plus a 2024 third-round selection, to Arizona to move up to No. In 2020, Tannehill had a .33 EPA/play, 60% success rate (% of plays with positive EPA), and 41% first down rate in 81 early down dropbacks with Henry off the field, as opposed to a .32 EPA/play, 56% success rate, and 40% first down rate in 242 such plays with Henry on the field. I dont know if its because hes so big, strong and physical that it just wears the other guys down.". If D'Andre Swift and . If that is throwing the ball more, then it is throwing the ball more. Heres a comparison of some key Titans offensive categories -- a look at the numbers with and without Henry: (Its worth noting, of course, that other factors have to be included as well in the comparison. Since 2019, Tennessees offense has generated 0.171 expected points added (EPA) per play number when Henry has been on the field, a number that would rank behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. NFL Rumors: C.J. Stroud Eyed in Trade Up by Titans Ahead of 2023 Draft But Ryan wants to see the team win. Theres nothing the film tells me that the data hasnt the portrait is pretty clear. All those types of things go into it. Henry and the tight ends force the defense to worry about the run, but the formation suggests pass. Is Bijan Robinson ideally positioned to turn the Atlanta Falcons into an offensive juggernaut? He just led the Titans to a 12th comeback when trailing in the fourth quarter or overtime with the overtime win in Indianapolis last week. Explore Who is the all-time receiving leader for the Titans? Statistically, he is top 5 by almost every meaningful measure. The Titans continued to load up for the future on Friday night, selecting Tulane running back Tyjae Spears with the 81st pick. Panthers' Young all 'business now'. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. Broken tackles are an unofficial statistic, and its important to note that different sources have different tallies. Why Stephen A. isn't sold on Tannehill as an MVP candidate. But his tape was also littered with questionable decision-making and accuracy questions. The Titans ran for 198 yards against the Dolphins, meaning three of the teams biggest five rushing days this season New England (270 rushing yards) and Pittsburgh (201 rushing yards) have come since Henry was sidelined with a broken bone in his foot. Watch how he hit that hole and murdered the angle that Micah Hyde (23) had. Nick Foles, Sam Darnold, and Dwayne Haskins are among the quarterbacks who have faced more 3rd-and-long situations than Tannehill, even though they havent been full-time starters for all of this season. Pro Football Focus counts. Whether it be getting us into a good play on the ground or it could be throwing the ball away, could be scrambling, could be making a good throw. Again, Henry -- the NFLs reigning Offensive Player of the Year and one of only eight backs to top 2,000 yards in a single season was the lead back for the first eight games of the season. Recapping the most wild NFL Free Agency moments so far. Army outside linebacker Andre Carter missed out on having his named announced in the 2023 NFL Draft, but his dream to become a professional football player is alive and well. pic.twitter.com/bAqbngKVtw. Hopefully you and I already knew this, but unfortunately a lot of people, particularly casual NFL fans, don't. Related | QB Power Rankings 2020 Week 7: Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson out to reclaim seasons. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Tannehill also doesn't expect the Tennessee offense to change much without Henry. Ryan Tannehill projections 2022: Fantasy stats, betting - SportsLine His 440 yards in play-action situations has been 18th-best over those eight contests, and hes averaged only 9.8 yards on completions. The Titans designated Henry, who missed the past nine games with a fractured foot, for return to practice from injured reserve on Jan. 4, giving them 21 days to add him to the 53-man roster. Here are Derrick Henrys rushing stats broken down by the number of defenders in the box, per Sports Info Solutions: Lets walk through that data slowly. Pro Football Reference lists Henry with just 12 broken tackles, which is still good enough to tie him for second in the NFL behind Mike Davis of the Carolina Panthers, with a league-high 365 rushing yards. 1. Or write about sports? Related | NFL Week 6 Recap and News: The biggest takeaways from Sundays action. Will will be the third quarterback. Stacking the box also opens up passing lanes for Tannehill when the Titans utilize play-action because Henry greatly influences linebackers who are forced to respect his rushing ability. Draft: Miami Dolphins in the 1st round (8th overall) of the 2012 NFL Draft. Henrys goal-line stats 41 yards, five TDs wont blow you away. Here's the "Nifty 50s" takeaway after the Titans 28-25 win over the Texans clinched the top seed in the AFC at NRG Park. Tannehill only got to 10 TD passes last weekend with his second three-TD game of the season. But with Henry now sidelined likely until the start of the 2022 season. Tannehill is more likely to sit tight as a placeholder in Tennessee on the final year of his contract, but at a steep salary, with the Titans just trading up to draft Will Levis at No. In 2020, Tannehill had a .33 EPA/play, 60% success rate(% of plays with positive EPA), and 41% first down rate in 81 early down dropbacks with Henry off the field, as opposed to a .32 EPA/play, 56% success rate, and 40% first down rate in 242 such plays with Henry on the field. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson Land? And keep in mind that most of the league leaders have played six games, while Henry has only played five. Jeremy McNichols, whos been on five teams over five years, has chipped in as well. For the backups, the Titans have sent them in as part of their spread offense, with 77% of the offenses snaps happening with three wide receivers (11 personnel) on the field. Titans odds Who is the all-time passing leader for the Titans? After 1st-round free fall, Levis to Titans at No. With the expected points added marks being only marginally different based on whos been in the backfield, I can only imagine how loud the dialogue will be about how much running the ball means for setting up play fakes later. King didn't rule out Levis remaining on the bench for the entirety of 2023 if Tennessee sticks with Tannehill or prefers to start Willis. No other rusher in the league has more than 12 broken tackles, according to that source. Henry has 16 scrimmage plays that resulted in at least a 40-yard gain, which ties him with New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley for the most over that same span. If so, you are in for a surprise. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2023 season! Here are Derrick Henrys rushing stats broken down by the number of defenders in the box, per Sports Info Solutions: The Titans offense likes to line up in the shotgun near the goal line with two tight ends and two receivers spread across the field. PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts. Please see our Contributors and Sources page for data source details. No one seems to agree. Ryan Tannehill, Titans Beat Matthew Stafford, Rams in 1st Game Without "Derrick is a heck of a player," quarterback Ryan Tannehill said. NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Tennessee Titans have only one real choice after losing the NFL's rushing leader in Derrick Henry to a broken right foot. And what I've told them is whatever happens after that will be up to the players. Theres also the ability to excel under pressure, evidenced by the three game-winning drives hes led this season 12 in his 38 games as a Titan. In the last eight games, however, the trio of Foreman-Hilliard-McNichols posted 22 carries of 10 yards or more two more than Henry. Ryan Tannehill had a passer rating of 89.0 with 1,732 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 9 games for the Titans without Derrick Henry in 2021. He shows great toughness, Titans guard Rodger Saffold said. The concept of the workhorse back has been left behind everywhere in the NFL, except for the Music City. The passing game isn't what was expected after the Titans traded for seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones in June, pairing him with 2020 Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Henry and the tight ends force the defense to worry about the run, but the formation suggests pass. How does Tannehill's re-signing affect Titans free agency? Given the current state of the AFC South, Tennessee could make an improbable playoff push behind Tannehill and star running back Derrick Henry. We have to keep moving forward as a team, as an offense, and find a way to continue to play our football and play good.. Where do the Broncos stand after all the picks in the Russell Wilson trade were made? Copyright 2019-2023. How bad could things be if Pro Football Focus, which also analyzes all facets of a quarterbacks game, gives Tannehill the third-highest grade among starting quarterbacks this season (89.5), trailing only Brady (90.9) and Minnesotas Kirk Cousins (90.8)? Last season, Tannehill completed 62% of his passes for 1,618 yards and 11 touchdowns on play-action, and he averaged 9.46 yards per attempt. But Henry leads the league in rushes against a seven-man box and is a surprising seventh in carries against soft boxes. I only used early down dropbacks to eliminate variables such as play type and down. New GM Ran Carthon is resetting this roster in a big way, they're making some moves. Red-zone performance It would seem, based on Henrys touchdown production, that the Titans would be much better in the red zone with him than without him. Often, the difference between a Pro Bowl season and one where the local fans are screaming for the backup comes down to avoiding the 3rd-and-long situations which lead to sacks, turnovers, stalled drives, and losses. Derrick Henry leads the NFL in first down carries (80) and yards (426). In the first eight games, the Titans scored touchdowns on 20-of-32 trips inside the red zone, a 62.5 percent success rate. Opposing teams will at times put eight in the box to try to stop him. George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA Today Network. What the Tennessee Titans have had in Derrick Henry is a running back prototypically built to carry the physical load to drive the Titans' offense to greatness, especially since quarterback Ryan Tannehill entered the fold as his running mate. Latest News: Dec. 21, 2022 7:34 AM PT 8:34 AM MT 9:34 AM CT 10:34 AM ET 15:34 GMT 23:34 8:34 AM MST 9:34 AM CST 10:34 AM EST 9:34 AM CT 19:34 UAE 10:34 ET NaN: - Tannehill will miss the remainder of the season and is unlikely to return for the playoffs after undergoing surgery to repair his injured right ankle. "Any time we can get him back out here working, and working his way to going out and competing with us, is going to be huge for us. Both are obviously indispensable cogs in the undefeated Tennessee Titans machine. Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs the ball in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Tannehill is 26-12 since becoming Tennessee's starting quarterback. He threw for 773 yards on play-action passes, the fourth-highest total in the NFL, and averaged 16.1 yards on his completions. Tannehill leads the league in touchdowns and in passer rating (144.6) in 2nd-and-short-to-medium situations, with a 76.6% completion rate and 9.4 yards per pass attempt. Former Titans general manager Jon Robinson used a third-round choice to select Liberty quarterback Malik Willis in 2022, but the raw quarterback struggled when given chances to play in place of Tannehill. Tannehill missed five games due to injury and wasn't as effective as in years past when healthy, completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,536 yards, 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. In some ways, its been that kind of season for the Tennessee Titans quarterback, whose play based on what kind of prism its seen through either could be judged as a step back from previous years or as an ability to elevate an injury-plagued offense to better-than-expected numbers. Tannehill is 26-12 since becoming Tennessee's starting quarterback. Born: He must improve his accuracy and fix ball-security issues to succeed in his rookie campaign. Ryan Tannehill has a passer rating of 93.1 with 6,978 yards, 50 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in 34 games without Derrick Henry in his career. Its more mind-blowing, however, to realize that the ground game over the past eight games has posted numbers that, in many categories, are every bit as impressive as the first eight games. He's averaging 11.2 yards per completion this season, more than a 20 percent drop. DOnta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard two who didnt have contracts at the start of this season have led the charge for the past eight. But there are plenty of other facts and figures to suggest that -- if not for Tannehill -- the Titans would hardly be in prime contention for the AFCs No. But the offense was missing a true, consistent home run threat. So Derrick Henry helps keep Ryan Tannehill out of 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long situations. 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